License Plate Lottery and the Global Implication of Traffic Jam
When you are driving on the streets of a large city, there are many things to worry about: the misery of parking, the rising fuel prices, or running into a bad driver. However, these issues are nothing compared with bumper-to-bumper traffic that costs you hours on the road, especially when you have an appointment with a friend or doctor. This is also the case in my hometown Beijing. In fact, in 2011, my municipal government implemented a series of regulations to solve traffic congestion. Among these, the most controversial one is a system called the “license plate lottery”, which works about the same as a regular lottery, with the winners receiving a license plate for their cars. Currently, the lottery is the only way for individuals and companies in Beijing to receive a license plate. Although the government argued that this solution can effectively mitigate traffic congestion (Gong), after almost ten years, the traffic only gets worse and the lottery becomes increasingly inconvenient. Beijing is certainly not the only city that suffers from traffic congestion over the years because the congestion is actually increasing on a global scale. In fact, a Traffic Index report has shown that out of the 416 cities in 57 countries, 57% of the cities have increased congestion levels between 2018 and 2019, while only 15% of the cities showing measurable decreases (TomTom). Given the fact that traffic congestion is a global issue that creates heavy losses to the global economy, it is important to look into viable solutions that can be applied to both Beijing and other cities around the world.
Before coming up with solutions to traffic congestion, it is important to learn why traffic congestion becomes an issue. Traffic congestion is the fruit of urbanization and spread by globalization. It appears as early as the 1910s (Melosi) and increases substantially in the 1950s (Caves 115)). As industrialization led to the invention of cars and brought more people from the countryside to large cities, humans started to live in a more crowded and restricted environment. Western developed countries were the first ones to encounter traffic congestion: The increase in economic power of countries like the United Kingdom enabled more people to generate enough wealth to purchase automobiles in the 20th century. Globalization in the 21st century brought traffic congestion all over the world, because the improvement of technology and the closely-connected global economy now enables more urban dwellers from developing countries to purchase cars. My hometown is an example of this. Ever since Beijing switched to market economy and became more engaged with the global market, the city has experienced a series of economic improvements (Wang). This enabled more people to live in Beijing, buy their own cars, and eventually caused heavy traffic. This is when the license plate lottery came into place.
My municipal government first introduced the lottery system in 2011 to radically reduce traffic in Beijing (Lim). At that time, Beijing has become one of the most gridlocked cities in the world and the average commute time is 62 minutes (Lim). The lousy traffic instigated the creation of a lottery to limit the total number of cars, which in turn led to a relatively positive short-term effect, with average driving speed increases by 2.7km/h a year after the lottery (Yang et al.). At first, the government’s use of a lottery may seem like a meaningful regulation to reduce traffic jams. However, things become complicated when people find that the chance of winning the lottery is extremely low. The license plate lottery usually takes place every other month, and anyone who is interested in applying will need to submit their information to an online system, which randomly selects a number of applications. In this April’s lottery, only 6,366 out of 1.84 million applicants in Beijing were selected, yielding a percentage lower than 4% (Wang). An article from Bloomberg points out the negative effects of these low selection rates listed in Wang’s article. Sandra Zhao, a Beijing resident, was unable to buy her dream car even though she has enough money to pay for it. This was because she has not yet acquired a license plate since she joined the lottery pool 5 years ago. For a person who needs a car to take care of her child and her sick mother, the lottery process seems too long for her to endure (Bloomberg). Similar to Sandra, a New York Times article tells the story of Larry Li, who was also unable to get a license plate in Beijing over the past 5 years. Because in big Chinese cities such as Beijing, people often see a house and a car as must-haves before marriage. Larry was anxious that he may not be able to marry his fiance because he cannot get a license plate (Guo).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3kL6nMap2s
Although some people may argue that the lottery controls the total number of cars on the streets, the lottery actually fails to serve as an efficient solution because the traffic is still horrendous in Beijing, especially during rush hours on weekdays. For instance, when I was doing my internship on the west side of the city, it took me more than an hour to get through traffic, while on a day without heavy traffic, the commute only costs me about half an hour. This is because the lottery only slows down the annual growth rate of cars in the city instead of taking more cars off the road. The city already has heavy traffic before the initiation of the lottery, and the license plate control is not enough to solve the problem. An article from Beijing Review pointed out that 7 years after the implementation of the license plate lottery, Beijing is still “the city with the highest mileage ratio of congestion during peak hours” in China (Li). This points out that the license plate system needs to be reformed while other measures should also be taken to reduce traffic. In some other cities in China, an auction system is in place for people to buy license plates (Nakamura). However, I do not think it is the best solution as the auction drives up the cost of getting a car and creates more financial burden for people at the same time. Since domestic solutions fail to meet expectations, what are some of the foreign solutions for people to consider?
The city of London serves as a good example of using a punishment system to discourage drivers. According to The Guardian, private cars are rarely seen in London’s city center due to the congestion charge (Topham). The charge is £15 per day when people drive their private cars within the Congestion Charge zone (namely the city center) from 7 am to 10 pm. This regulation is clearly effective: When the charge was first implemented in 2003, the number of cars in London fell by 15%. Besides, the percentage of private car trips across Greater London drops from 50% in 2003 to only 37% in 2019. This is a remarkable accomplishment since London is able to decrease its private car trips when roughly one in two people living in Greater London own or use a car. I think Beijing can also adopt this solution by having a congestion charge on private cars in the city center during rush hour. This will decrease the number of cars on the road on weekdays and lessen the congestion. However, simply running a punishment system may be too harsh. To appease its stringency, a punishment system should be accompanied by a reward system, and the Netherlands’ recent reward system may serve as a useful template for Beijing.
The Netherlands has a regional trial to reward commuters who cycle to work (Janssen). During the ride to the company, each cyclist can receive €0.19 (around $0.22) per kilometer from their employer (Forrest). Government officials projected that the reward system will eventually encourage 200,000 more people to ride bikes to work (Forrest). The success of related trials in Belgium is also able to support the reward system (Forrest). The Netherlands plan should be taken into consideration by my hometown as well. The city of Beijing can also ask companies and enterprises to provide an allowance for their employees who ride to work. The government itself can also consider working with local shops and businesses to provide certain shopping discounts to people who ride bikes during rush hour. Aside from this, Beijing should include other public transportations into the reward system as well to accommodate long-distance commuters.
Globalization has undoubtedly reshaped people’s living conditions and provided people with more perspectives of the world. However, the traffic congestion implicates that globalization also has its disadvantages. The prevalence of traffic congestion around the world an urgent need for solutions. Apart from this, the global consequence for the persisting traffic jam will lead to billions of dollars of losses. At the present, the combination of London and the Netherlands’ traffic regulations provide a brand new punishment-reward system for cities like Beijing to take into consideration. However, it remains unclear whether the punishment-reward system will become the solution that can be adopted by all cities worldwide due to different political or economic systems. However, by addressing the global prevalence of traffic congestion and actively looking for solutions, countries and cities will be able to find the best solutions for themselves.
Works Cited
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